Overview
Yesterday, reports emerged that German investigators discovered several al Qaeda plots after decrypting hardware found in possession of a suspected terrorist arrested last year in Berlin. A 22-year-old named Masqood Lodin was interrogated in May 2011 by authorities in Berlin who found a digital storage device and memory cards hidden in his underpants. According to authorities, the documents seized reveal “an extraordinarily detailed insight into the inner workers of al Qaeda.” The intelligence includes information regarding previously uncovered plots, new details about known terror plots and how al Qaeda is dealing with drone strikes and increased intelligence operations. The following outlines the latest intelligence:
- Cruise Ship Plot: Al Qaeda planned for terrorist operatives to hijack cruise ships and kill tourists to pressure several governments to release certain prisoners. Their plan was to dress the passengers in orange jumpsuits, like the terror suspects being held in Guantanamo Bay, and execute them.
- European Terror Plot: Details were revealed regarding how al Qaeda intended to carry out the European Terror Plot, which emerged in the fall of 2010. The plot called for Mumbai-style attacks in major European cities, including London, Berlin and Paris. At the time, it led the U.S. Department of State to issue a travel warning to Americans in Europe.
- Training manuals in Arabic, German and English were found saved in PDF format.
- A document titled “Future Works” outlined plans to find new targets and methods of attack as a means to mitigate increased intelligence operations on the al Qaeda network. The document outlines a twin-track strategy, noting how the network needs to conduct “low-cost, low-tech” attacks to distract security services while other operatives plan large-scale attacks. German officials say it appears to have been written in 2009 and may be the work of Younis al-Mauretani, a senior al Qaeda operative who was arrested last year by police in Pakistan.
Implications
The latest intelligence supports the trends that analysts have been tracking within the past several years. Given the degradation of al Qaeda’s core membership and capabilities, the group is continuously seeking ways to carry out smaller scale, successful attacks with fewer resources. They have become more creative with their targeting preferences. At the same time, they continue to develop plots calling for the utilization of tactics from past successes like the 2008 Mumbai Attacks.