Jessica Hagstrom

Officials in Pyongyang, the capital of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, commonly known as North Korea, have intensified the amount of hawkish rhetoric towards South Korea and the United States.

Over the past several weeks, communication from North Korea has turned threatening, sparking a political and military response from South Korea and its allies. In March, North Korea stated they would no longer take part in the 60-year-old armistice which ended the Korean War.  During the same week, North Korea reduced official communications with the South Koreans, first by cutting a humanitarian hotline and then shutting down direct military communication. While not an overt threat, international observers question whether a lack of communications could lead to a miscalculation of military posturing sparking skirmishes or worse, along the border.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is young, inexperienced and unpredictable. The possibility remains that he could assert his power through launching attacks on South Korea border cities or islands. U.S. officials have not seen any obvious signs that the North Koreans are preparing for war. Typically, North Korea conducts drills during joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises which occur annually. Regardless of intent, the United States is responding to North Korean provocation with displays of military force. Earlier this week, the U.S. flew B-2 and F-22 Raptor stealth aircraft within 50 miles of the demilitarized zone. Also, the U.S. Navy moved two guided missile ships off the Korean coast in an effort to deter North Korean provocation. Pyongyang responded by threatening to re-start their weapons related nuclear program, which was reportedly shutdown in 2007. On April 3, the General Staff of the North Korean military announced that a nuclear strike on the United States was authorized and the “moment of explosion is approaching fast.”

The MSA Research and Intelligence Team has been following this situation closely, and has provided the following terrorism threat analysis:

  • Officials in the U.S. do not believe North Korea is capable of launching inter-continental missiles which can strike “lower 48” U.S. based targets. However, the North Koreans do possess a strong conventional military which is capable of launching a barrage of artillery and mid-range rockets well into South Korea, including the South Korean capital of Seoul.
     
  • We do not expect an overt, overland war between North and South Korea in the near-term; there are several other more likely scenarios. The North Koreans will continue escalating rhetoric, temporarily closing borders and cutting communications. Pyongyang is also likely to continue shifting or re-posturing military forces into strategic positions, focused on pre-planned targets in South Korea. Additionally, threats of re-starting nuclear facilities or testing nuclear capable ballistic missiles will likely continue.
     
  • North Korea is limited without external support, namely from China. The Chinese, through the United Nations, voted for the latest round of sanctions against North Korea, showing displeasure toward the unprovoked behavior from Pyongyang. China represents a large part of the North Korea economy, especially with regard to food and oil.
     
  • China can send a gentle message by setting restrictions on trade with the North Koreans. Recently, the Chinese have begun to enforce tighter banking rules on North Korean banks in China and there have been delays in trade at Chinese and North Korean border crossings. Additionally, North Korea closing access to the Kaesong Industrial Complex means the Demilitarized Zone restricts North Korea from access to hard currency and probably hurts them more than the South Koreans. Subtle Chinese censure and self-inflicted North Korean missteps may begin to mitigate North Korea’s rhetoric and hostility in the near-term.  


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