A note from our President, Michael O'Neil...
I wanted to share my thoughts with you on a trend our intelligence team has been closely tracking overseas that holds great weight for our domestic security environment.
In recent months, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has exploited the raging battles in Iraq and Syria, increasing their territorial claim in the region. Their geographic expansion has also allowed them to grow in strength and capability, as the border between Syria and Iraq becomes increasingly porous. Adding to this trend is the infusion of western-based foreign fighters into the conflict. Although the group’s prominent focus remains regional, they have previously expressed a desire to target western interests. Our concern, shared by many, is that these combat-trained extremists will return to the U.S. more hardened and radicalized to organize or carry out terrorist attacks.
While ISIS and al Qaeda are currently in competition for the loyalties of Sunni jihadists, there are shared tactics that can threaten the west. Based on what we have seen with social media activity and propaganda videos from ISIS, they are seeking western recruits to travel abroad for both training and combat activity. There is a strong parallel with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) Inspire magazine, which over the past few years has provided lone wolf/small group militants like the Boston Marathon bombers with information and inspiration to conduct terrorist operations at home. ISIS is now well funded and has shown more sophistication in its professionally edited videos, which feature Hollywood-style graphics. They support operations abroad, most notably through their anti-American imagery. All of this suggests an intention by ISIS to generate attacks within the U.S. and/or U.S. entities overseas.
Foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria have the opportunity to partake in a broader indoctrination cycle abroad. They are receiving hands-on training and instruction for employing active shooter tactics and building explosives. This is evident in two recent case studies. Last month, French national Mehdi Nemmouche fatally shot four people at the Jewish Museum in Belgium after returning from fighting in Syria. Also in May, news of the first American suicide bomber in Syria emerged after he attacked a Syrian government site. Additionally, several hundred European nationals fighting abroad have valid passports, allowing them to travel to the U.S. without visa restrictions. The combatants returning home have an even greater advantage of familiarity with both western targets and the western landscape.
In the earlier years of Osama bin Laden and the development of his al Qaeda network, Sudan was utilized as a safe haven to nurture the organization and provide time for planning future operations. The same could be said for the way ISIS is developing safe havens and evolving in Iraq and Syria. The one distinct difference worth noting is that al Qaeda developed without fanfare in the 1990s, but ISIS is out front utilizing social media and other propaganda tools to showcase their growing capabilities.
As the threat continues to progress, MSA’s intelligence team will be providing updates and analytical context. Additionally, we will be offering an in-depth webinar addressing the topic next week on Tuesday, July 1 and Wednesday, July 2, both at 11:00am.
Please register for either day at the following links:
Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 11:00am: Register here
Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 11:00am: Register here
I hope you or your team will find the information helpful, and as always, we are here to answer any of your questions or concerns.