Intel Threat Brief: Terrorism on the Rise in the UK

In a televised public hearing yesterday, the British Intelligence and Security Committee gave evidence to Parliament that the terrorist threat in the UK is on the rise. According to the Director General of The Security Service (MI5), the Chief of The Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and the Director of Government Communications HQ (GCHQ), Britain has encountered 34 terror plots since the 7/7 bombings in 2005. Most of the plots were thwarted by British intelligence and security agencies, and no more than two fizzled on their own. According to the security panel, at least “one or two” terror plots a year were intended to cause mass casualties.

Though the UK has not experienced a large scale attack since 2005, the Security and Intelligence panel noted that there are currently thousands of individuals who support extremist ideology living in the UK. Additionally, more British citizens have been killed by terrorists overseas this year than in the previous seven years combined, according to the Chief of MI6. The increase in British deaths resulting from terrorism worldwide is likely due to the fact that plots have historically stemmed from al Qaeda core in Afghanistan and Pakistan; however, they have recently been emerging from areas in Africa and Yemen as well.

To further complicate matters, officials explained that intelligence leaks by Edward Snowden have hindered the UK intelligence community’s ability to prevent, uncover and disrupt terrorist plots. Five months ago, Snowden released thousands of files from the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) which were publicized by newspapers around the world. Officials claim the leaks provided terrorist operatives with “inside knowledge” of monitoring methods utilized by GCHQ and other intelligence agencies while also “endangering spies on the frontlines.” Online chatter emanating from Afghanistan, South Asia and the Middle East was intercepted in which terrorists discussed plans to shift their plotting methods and tactics as a direct result of the NSA leaks. Additionally, terrorists have dropped certain means of communication which they now know to be “vulnerable” or susceptible to surveillance. Officials did not provide any specific proof during the hearing for security reasons.

The MSA Research and Intelligence Team has been following this situation closely, and has identified the following implications:

• While al Qaeda core has been weakened in the years following the 9/11 attacks, its regional affiliates and linked groups present a growing security threat. 
   
• Additionally, homegrown extremists aligning with the al Qaeda ideology are a consistent threat in Western countries, specifically the UK and the U.S. Furthermore, conflict-ridden areas plagued by civil unrest have become susceptible to extremist activities and attract sympathizers from the West.
   
• These individuals who engage in fighting overseas could potentially return to their home countries with the ability and mindset to conduct attacks. 
   
• Intelligence leaks have also made it much more difficult for Western intelligence agencies to intercept communications as terrorist operatives are adapting their tactics. 
   
• The comments made by officials during the parliamentary hearing, though specific to the UK, echo the overall consensus of the international intelligence community.