This morning, a second blast occurred on a trolley in the city of Volgograd, Russia, killing 17 people and injuring at least 35 others. The bombing was reportedly carried out by a male suicide bomber. According to law enforcement officials, the device was packed with “identical shrapnel” to the one used in yesterday’s rail station attack, indicating that the bombings are likely connected.
The first attack took place at the Volgograd-1 train station yesterday, killing 16 people and wounding dozens more. The attacker reportedly detonated prior to passing through metal detectors located within the station, blowing out windows and doors. Initially, it was reported that the attack was carried out by a female suicide bomber from Dagestan, suggesting that it could have been a “Black Widow” attack; however, there is now conflicting information that the perpetrator may have been male. Testing is still being carried out on the attacker’s remains. At this time, no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks.
Key Points
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Chechen militants and other Islamic insurgency groups in the north Caucasus are known for brutal tactics, including working in teams and targeting first responders at the scene of an attack.
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Female suicide attackers have gained prevalence in Russia beginning with the “Black Widows” and noted as recently as the October 21 bombing of a bus, also in Volgograd. According to Russian authorities, the majority of militants responsible for terrorist attacks in Russia over the past decade were from Dagestan, the same region as Boston Marathon bombers Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev.
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Volgograd is an attractive target as it is a large city and vital transportation hub. Attacks in the area are likely to garner greater international media attention in the lead up to the Olympics as opposed to the more frequent attacks in North Ossetia, Chechnya and Dagestan.
The MSA Research and Intelligence Analysis (RIA) Group has been monitoring this situation, and has identified the following implications:
There is an increased potential for terrorist attacks in Russia over the next six weeks in advance of the Sochi Olympics. Separatists in the north Caucasus are likely to use the games in an attempt to force political consideration from Moscow. The attack methodology typically utilized in the region is difficult to prevent through ordinary counterterrorism measures. The fact that the suicide bomber detonated just outside the security screening area highlights key concerns for security personnel, including how to address queuing area management, location of screening areas, passenger/entrant density and preliminary screening of personnel.
Although no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks, they come just months after the Chechen separatist group, Caucasus Emirate, vowed to disrupt the upcoming Winter Olympics in Sochi. In a video statement, group leader Doku Umarov pledged to “unleash maximum force” during the Olympics. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains that the Olympic Games will be safe and security will be tight. In response to the bombings, Putin ordered increased security at all train stations and airports throughout the country.
Chechen militants have previously carried out attacks in Volgograd, Moscow and other areas of Russia since the onset of the First Chechen War (1994). While Volgograd is 380 miles north of the Chechen capital of Grozny and approximately 780 miles from Moscow, the town of Sochi lies less than 300 miles to the west of Grozny. As the Chechen militants have shown the ability to project force in many configurations against a variety of targets over the past 20 years, the threat of terrorism remains significant in the region and of particular concern during the Sochi Winter Olympics.
MSA Security's Research and Intelligence Analysis Group provides real-time intelligence on terrorism-related events and worldwide threats as they evolve.
(Image Credit: cnn.com)