The MSA Research & Intelligence Analysis Team recently provided a Special Analysis Report on the Potential Iranian Threat. The report highlights MSA’s assessment of the current threat to Israeli and Western interests posed by Iran, as well as implications of potential actions, should already heightened tensions escalate.
The following is a preview of our Special Analysis Report which is available for full download by clicking below.
OVERVIEW
Earlier this month, there were reports of a potential increase in the threat from Iran against Jewish and Israeli targets in North America. The threat was under consideration because of growing discussion that Israel may preemptively strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months but there is no specific or confirmed information. Currently, Israel is continuing to weigh its potential attack options, knowing full well that Iranian officials claim they will retaliate if the action is carried through.
Additionally, there has been a longstanding debate in the past few years over whether the United States should take the lead in striking Iran in an attempt to terminate its advancing nuclear program. For some time, the estimate has been that Iran can go operational with a nuclear device within six months of deciding to do so. The argument for military action is that it is better than allowing an Iranian nuclear state to exist in the region. The counter debate is that military action may trigger a global war and worldwide economic crisis.
There is certainty that the United States will align with Israel and other allies in the Gulf on how to proceed. These countries generally agree that a worst case scenario is managing a nuclear armed Iran. That situation will be too unstable and unpredictable, and afford Iran too much control in the Middle East.
In the event Iran continues to defy the international community, an overt strike by the Israeli military on Iranian nuclear facilities is likely within the next six months. There is still the hope that harsh sanctions imposed on Iran by the international community, namely the United States and the European Union, will coerce Iran into complying with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s demands to cease its uranium production before it can be turned into weapons-grade uranium.