On Monday, August 27, the MSA Research and Intelligence Analysis Group released a special analysis regarding the potential for conflict between Israel and Iran in the short term. Below is an excerpt from the analysis:
There is renewed speculation on the timing of a potential Israeli military strike targeting Iranian nuclear facilities which the Israelis hope would terminate or significantly delay Iran’s alleged development of nuclear weapons. This comes as pressure to preemptively strike continues to grow from some portions, but not all, of the Israeli government. The White House is encouraging restraint in an effort to allow more time for the significant economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., European Union, and to a lesser extent, the United Nations, to take effect. However, the Israeli government has been vocal about their interpretation that while the sanctions are having an impact on the Iranian economy, they have been ineffective in stopping Iran’s progress in obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The Israeli argument for military action is that it is better than allowing an Iranian nuclear state to exist in the region. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barack fears Iran is nearing a "zone of immunity"vi after which it will be impossible to terminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program by military strike or any other means. The arguments against military action range from the impossibility of successfully attacking the dispersed Iranian program to the specter of massive Iranian retaliation or regional war and worldwide economic crisis.
Based on factors presented, while Israel apparently possesses the potential intent and military capability to attack the Iranian program through military strike, it is unlikely to do so in the short-term (prior to 2013).