The U.S. Director of National Intelligence assessed that the underground explosion occurred near P’unggye in the northeast region of the country and that the blast yielded “several kilotons.” South Korea’s defense ministry estimated that the detonation had a yield between six and seven kilotons. This is greater than the previous tests, which measured one kiloton in 2006 and between two and seven kilotons in 2009. The U.S. Geological Survey registered the seismic activity from the explosion at 4.9-magnitude. This is also greater than the two previous tests, which measured 4.1 and 4.5-magnitude.
The MSA Research and Intelligence Analysis Team has been following this situation closely, and has identified the following implications:
- The nuclear test drew immediate condemnation from world leaders and prompted the United Nations (UN) Security Council to call an emergency meeting to decide how to respond.
- President Barack Obama described the test as a “highly provocative act” and called for “further swift and credible action by the international community.”
- Japan’s Prime Minister called the test a “grave threat,” and the Russian Foreign Ministry called on North Korea to “end all illegal actions.”
- China, considered North Korea’s strongest ally, firmly criticized the test but called for a calm response. China has recently indicated its frustration with Pyongyang and this may further stress that alliance.
- The UN is expected to impose more severe economic sanctions to further isolate North Korea, but it is unlikely that the punishments will stop North Korea’s nuclear program.
- In the past, the international sanctions have been followed by attempts at conciliation through foreign aid. However, this has not prevented North Korean provocations. The ongoing cycle is likely to continue.
- This nuclear test may be a significant step for North Korea toward developing an intercontinental nuclear missile, which is widely believed to be their goal. However, regular testing would be needed for the development of a nuclear weapon and it will take years for North Korea to develop a nuclear bomb small enough to fit on a missile.
- It is unclear if North Korea used plutonium, as they did in the previous tests, or highly enriched uranium to fuel the device. Uranium is concerning to Western powers because it is not as easy to detect as plutonium and might signify that North Korea is conserving its limited supply of plutonium for use in a nuclear weapon.
For more information on terrorism related events, worldwide threats, and corporate intelligence sign up to recevie MSA's latest Intelligence Reports.
(Image Credit: Time Newsfeed)