MSA Intel Alert: Islamist Militants Issue Video Threatening Sochi Olympics

Yesterday, a group calling itself Vilayat Dagestan posted a 49-minute video to a jihadist web forum in which they took responsibility for the December suicide bombings in Volgograd, Russia and issued a direct threat to the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics. In the video, Vilayat Dagestan claimed the two men featured were the suicide bombers behind the attacks in Volgograd, which together left at least 34 people dead. The group also warned that other fighters will follow with attacks if the Olympics are held as planned in Sochi.

Vilayat Dagestan offered little information about the men in the video, who are identified only as Suleiman and Abdulrakhman. They are shown sitting in front of a jihadist flag, posing with assault rifles and wearing explosive belts. The men warned that Russians and attendees of the Olympic Games will not be safe as long as Russia’s security forces occupy the Caucasus region, which is embroiled by an Islamic insurgency. One of the militants read a statement in Russian, saying:

“We have prepared a … present for you, for you [President Vladimir Putin] and all those tourists who will come over. If you hold the Olympics, you will receive a present from us. It will be for all the Muslim blood that is shed every day around the world, be it in Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria, all around the world. This will be our revenge.”

The MSA Research and Intelligence Analysis (RIA) Group has been monitoring this situation, and has identified the following implications:

• The video emerged just three weeks ahead of the start of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, fueling additional fears over the current security situation in Russia and the Putin administration’s ability to secure the country throughout the event. It is the latest threat aimed directly at the Olympics, and follows the call for attacks at the Sochi Games issued by Chechen militant leader Doku Umarov last July. 
   
• Vilayat Dagestan stated the attacks in Volgograd were carried out in part due to Umarov’s order, and it is the first group to claim responsibility for those bombings. 
   
• Vilayat Dagestan seeks to create an Islamic state in the predominantly Muslim province of Dagestan, located in the North Caucasus to the east of Sochi. 
   
• Dagestan has become the center of an Islamic insurgency that spread throughout the Caucasus region following wars in the neighboring province of Chechnya. 
   
• The newest video, along with the one released by Umarov last year, may serve as inspiration for lower level militants and lone wolves to attack within Russia surrounding the Games. 
   
• Putin acknowledged that the Olympics are a desirable target for terrorists, but that Russia is prepared to counter the threat. Officials in the U.S. have voiced their concerns over Russia’s ability to adequately protect athletes and spectators, citing Russian authorities’ lack of intelligence and information-sharing with other countries. 
   
• The U.S. has developed a contingency plan in the event that American athletes and tourists need to be evacuated.